Weekly Post (06/14/2025)

Geopolitics!

Commentary

I noted last week that with ES breaking out of its prior balance high at 5976-5994, that the action favored long continuation. NQ had already broken out of its balance highs at 21,542-21,568 and we did see continuation into the Wednesday (06/11) CPI print when ES tagged 6074.75 and NQ tagged 22,106. The rest of the week saw sellers take over as we made a lower high in the New York session on Thursday (06/12) before geopolitical volatility took over.

NQ got to 21,471 which was the low from June 6th (to the tick!) before bidding prior balance highs and closing above. ES and NQ both bid hard in the morning session on Friday, where ES got to Thursday’s upside RTH single prints at 6027 before offering to close the week back at our core 5976-5994 zone — prior balance high. We chopped around this area after getting as low as 5927 in the overnight session and it’ll be interesting to see how we react here next week. NQ closed above its prior balance high after managing to get as high as 21,854.75 before offering and closing at 21,652.

We tested below the b-adj 20dma for the first time since April 23-24 on both ES and NQ which has been core support in this upper trend off the April 7th-8th lows. ES tapped this area on May 23rd and bid with NQ tapping its 200dma on that day forming great lows to swing long off of.

The swing shorts I tried on May 19 worked really well into May 23 but bouncing off of those core moving averages and breaking above balance made me think that my model calibration was off slightly. I was hoping this would break out of balance lower and would have ideally liked to swing this significantly lower than where we got to. But with price managing to break higher and make higher highs into June, my core backtest is not in favor of trying shorts when this happens. Thus, I’m more in favor of buying dips than selling rips at least until July OPEX.